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UNDER THE PRINT

Anthony Khaimov

Read the plumbing.
Not the print.

I write about rates, FX, equities, and digital assets. My focus is on the mechanics under a move, who has to buy or sell, how it gets funded, what limits the people on the other side, instead of guessing where a price goes next. Every post says what I think and what would prove me wrong.

Building toward an S&T seat, 2027

Latest theses

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MKT STRUCTURE JUL 25 2026

Huang is right about open weights

THESIS AI leadership runs through open weights, not one benchmark-topping model · BREAKS IF a breach needs local weight access and open models stay a year behind through 2027

CRYPTO JUL 20 2026

The 93-day rule is a Treasury demand story before it is a crypto story

THESIS the reserve maturity limit concentrates $230bn of demand in one slice of the bill curve · BREAKS IF issuers move reserves into repo and deposits, or the final rule widens the maturity band

CROSS-ASSET JUL 06 2026

Crude fell back and the pump did not. The crack spread is the honest print

THESIS refining and product logistics are the binding constraint, not crude supply · BREAKS IF product cracks compress back to pre-war levels while crude holds under $75

RATES JUN 18 2026

Dropping forward guidance is a volatility decision, not a communication style

THESIS removing guidance sends uncertainty back to the front end as a structural change · BREAKS IF front-end implied vol stays in its pre-June range through year-end

RATES MAY 26 2026

Warsh was hired to cut and the data is asking for a hike

THESIS the market is pricing the chair rather than the committee that votes · BREAKS IF inflation decelerates over the summer and the cut path returns without a fight

MKT STRUCTURE MAY 11 2026

The trade court struck down the replacement tariff and nothing moved

THESIS the market prices the availability of authority, not the individual ruling · BREAKS IF a struck-down program goes unreplaced and the effective rate stays lower

MKT STRUCTURE APR 20 2026

The headline tariff rate is not the rate anyone pays

THESIS effective incidence is set by overlapping programs, exemptions and drawback · BREAKS IF reported input costs converge toward the announced headline rate

CROSS-ASSET APR 03 2026

Worst quarter since 2022, and the diversification did not work

THESIS a supply shock raises inflation and lowers growth at once, so duration is no hedge · BREAKS IF stock-bond correlation goes negative and holds through a second risk-off

MKT STRUCTURE MAR 30 2026

When the shadow fleet sets the clearing price

THESIS the marginal carrier, not the marginal barrel, sets price during a blockade · BREAKS IF freight and war-risk premia normalise while crude stays elevated

CROSS-ASSET MAR 04 2026

The first move in crude was a premium, not a shortage

THESIS the initial repricing was geopolitical risk premium rather than tight spot supply · BREAKS IF physical differentials and time spreads tighten in line with flat price

MKT STRUCTURE FEB 23 2026

The tariff regime was struck down and replaced on the same day

THESIS which statute is available matters more than which tariff is announced · BREAKS IF a struck-down program goes unreplaced for a full quarter

RATES JAN 14 2026

The Fed chair succession is a curve trade, not a level trade

THESIS a chair change reprices the reaction function and balance sheet, not today’s level · BREAKS IF the announcement moves the front end more than the belly

CROSS-ASSET DEC 15 2025

Yen carry is the transmission line nobody puts on the chart

THESIS rising JGB yields drain global liquidity and the most levered assets sell first · BREAKS IF Japanese yields rise without a matching drawdown in high-beta risk

CRYPTO NOV 24 2025

The November unwind was a funding event wearing a crypto costume

THESIS a leverage cascade through thin books, not a change of mind about fundamentals · BREAKS IF a comparable drawdown happens with open interest and funding unchanged